ABSTRACT: A comparison of the performance of 5 wheat models was carried out for 2 sites in Europe with considerably different agroclimatic conditions: Rothamsted, UK, and Seville, Spain. The models were calibrated against field data sets from both sites. For Rothamsted the measured time courses of crop growth, evapo-transpiration and nitrogen uptake were reproduced reasonably well by the different models, except for leaf area index. For Seville, the experimental data set was insufficient for such a detailed comparison and mainly simulated results were compared. The sensitivity of the model results to stepwise changes in individual weather variables was then determined. In the different model runs a temperature rise generally resulted in lower yields, an increase in precipitation and atmospheric CO₂ concentration resulted in higher yields, and increased variability of weather variables often resulted in lower yields with increased yield variability.

KEY WORDS: Climate change · Climatic variability · Inter-model comparison · Sensitivity analysis · Simulation model · Wheat

Published in CR Vol. 7, No. 3 (1996) on December 31
ISSN: 0936-577X. Copyright © Inter-Research, Oldendorf/Luhe, 1996