ABSTRACT: This study uses Global Circulation Models (GCMs) and the dynamic crop growth model CERES-Maize to assess the potential effects of climate change on corn (Zea mays L.) in Zimbabwe. Corn is the most widely grown crop in Zimbabwe and is often under environmental stress due to high ambient temperature and low rainfall conditions. Global climate change scenarios suggest corn productivity in Zimbabwe will decrease dramatically under non-irrigated or irrigated conditions in some regions of agricultural production. The reductions in corn yields are primarily attributed to ambient temperature increases which shorten the crop growth period, particularly the grain-filling period. If climate effects occur farmers may find corn production an unacceptably risky activity. Adaptation options are available but financial costs may be prohibitive to communal area farmers.

KEY WORDS: Simulated model . Zea mays L. . Zimbabwe

Published in CR Vol. 6, No. 2 (1996) on February 19
ISSN: 0936-577X. Copyright © Inter-Research, Oldendorf/Luhe, 1996